|
|
|
|
|||||
|
||||||
From: Bryan Genez (no email)
Date: Mon Jun 05 2006 - 21:11:50 EDT
On 6/5/06, Ken James <> wrote:
>
> The links I sent before, in my previous email, the first link of them was
> a
> study done by a scientist using thousands of toy rubber ducks that spilled
> from a shipping container. He tracked them all over the world for many
> years
> and they are still being tracked now. They reveal that such floating
> objects
> will show up in many unexcpected locations. So it could be inferred that
> objects like shipping containers have a real and significant probability
> of
> showing up far outside of the shipping lanes if they float long enough, as
> some will.
Rubber duckies float on the surface. They're much more affected by wind
currents. Any study of where they go will be a study of the surface effects
of wind. As far as where will containers go "if they float long enough, as
some will" - well, there's no empirical data to support that statement, is
there? When they start showing up on beaches, which they haven't, then, and
only then, can we infer where they've been. Until that time, the only hard
evidence is that they've disappeared, presumably to the bottom of the sea.
The fact that a submarine spends most of its time at sea neither on the
> bottom or on the surface shows it is in fact possible for very large metal
> objects to 'float' indefinatly between the top and bottom of the ocean.
Submarines actively maintain their depth, by regulating buoyancy and speed.
There are many confirmed reports of both shipping containers and such things
> as logs that float for long times either semi-submerged or just below the
> surface.
Yes, like reports we've heard in this thread. "I hit something; it must
have been a container." Not exactly scientific.
Whales can also do that. Also after they die they slowly sink, it takes over
> a year for many of them to reach the bottom.
Now this is something I've never heard. Has someone actually timed a
whale's sinking from time of death until impact? At any rate, you're now
introducing a biological organism which decays with gassing. It's specific
gravity will change continuously as it decays. That's not a container.
An equalivent statement would be "ballons must either stay on the ground or
> float to the very top of the atmosphere" yet they do not, even simple
> helium
> ballons will not go all the way to the top before they stabilze and go no
> higher.
Absolutely incorrect. Balloons are altitude restricted by the density of
the atmosphere. As I said before, there is nothing equivalent in the sea,
as we don't see layers of different density objects all the way to the
bottom. Everything that is more dense than water at the surface will sink
all the way to the bottom. No exceptions. That's physics.
Maybe the best example is fish...they float at all different levels, don't
> they? And when they die they only sink when they decompose.
Again, fish actively maintain their position. When they die, they sink
because they no longer can actively maintain their position.
As others have pointed out, the physics will dictate where the item floats,
> and that may or may not be on the surface.
I'd suggest you research Archimedes Principle, which speaks to buoyancy.
Nothing "floats" beneath the surface.
And in fact, shipping containers are sometimes found washed up
> ashore...there have been many reported and documented examples, it is
> ongoing.
Can you provide links?
As I pointed out in my previous postings with the links, it has been firmly
> established that many thousands of containers are lost overboard each
> year,
> and also that a larger percentage will float for some time, a lesser
> percentage for a longer time, and a small percentage for a very long time.
> Now if that small percentage is say 5% out of 10,000 lost (as reported)
> then
> we have 500 floating containers added per year to whatever is already
> there.
> So maybe there are one or two thousand floating containers at any given
> time.
We can all develop numbers based upon hypotheses. Unfortunately, hypotheses
are not facts.
Now if there are 800 floating containers in the Pacific, and only 8,000 big
> ships (just a guess) then the risk of hitting a container is a
> signifigent
> portion of the risk of hitting a big ship. But what tilts the odds is that
> you cannot detect the container most times.
>
> So if you are concerned about the risk of collsion with a big ship, (and
> who
> would not be) then it is also reasonable to be concerned about the risk of
> colliding with a container.
>
> These are concerns that are indeed well founded in my opinion. Again, NOT
> just because of the statistics of a container 'being there', as based on
> them the risk would seem to be much less than hitting a ship, but due to
> the
> fact you cannot detect them...if you had no choice but to sail on when you
> saw a ship with no course or speed chage allowed, how long would it be
> before the inevitable?
>
> So whether or not the stories are inflated by those who tell them or not,
> based on facts I think the risk is real and the concern is valid. I just
> wish someone had a good solution. -Ken
Well, Ken, when we start getting factual information about the number of
floating containers out there and the frequency of collisions between boats
and containers, then we might be able to develop a factual model of risk.
But until that time, it's all hypothesis. You certainly are entitled to
your beliefs; but I'll stick with factual data. Hope that's OK.
-- Best, Bryan Genez "Capella" V40-158 New Bern, NC [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Everything you need is one click away. Make Yahoo! your home page now. http://us.click.yahoo.com/AHchtC/4FxNAA/yQLSAA/A1TolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/world-cruising/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|