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Subject: RE: [world-cruising] Buyer's Market
From: Grafton, John (JGrafton@XXX.XXX)
Date: Mon Apr 07 2003 - 11:17:29 EDT
Okay was I suppose to learn something that I didn't already know? I also
lost a large part of my retirement account money. As a result I will be
working longer than originally anticipated. If we don't sell and move up in
size then we'll go with what we have.
John
> -----Original Message-----
> From: JAXAshby@XXX.XXX]
> Sent: Monday, April 07, 2003 10:02 AM
> To: world-cruising@XXX.XXX
> Subject: Re: [world-cruising] Buyer's Market
>
> In a message dated 4/7/2003 9:18:50 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
> JGrafton@XXX.XXX writes:
>
> > I have a price on my boat and will not sell it for a penny less no
> > matter how long it takes. I continue to upgrade and maintain at the
> > highest
> > level. If I don't sell her, no problem we will continue to have fun
> with
> > the one we now own.
>
> In August of 1999 I owned Worldcom stock at $66 a share. Luckily (or
> smartly?) I sold it not long after, for by June of 2002 the stock was
> $0.10 a
> share, meaning one needed to sell ten shares to be able to afford a cold
> can
> of Coke on a hot summer's afternoon. I understand Worldcom stock has
> since
> skyrocketed by some 300% in just a few months to $0.30 a share.
>
> Between 1978 and 1981, collector's postage stamps were appreciating
> sometimes
> at over 2,000% (two THOUSAND percent) per year. Then one month the market
>
> stopped. By 1984 collector's stamps were back at mid 70's prices.
>
> The market price for any item is the price a willing buyer will pay to a
> willing seller. I know someone who still owns Worldcom bought at $66. I
> don't know anyone who expects Worldcom to return to that price, no matter
> how
> long one waits.
>
> Reality of the used sailboat market today is that there are *very* few
> buyers
> out there right now, and most of them have been patiently waiting -- cash
> in
> hand -- for the bargains to start to show up. About the only thing
> propping
> up the used sailboat market right now is that fewer and fewer and fewer
> boat
> owners are offering their boats right now, hoping that the market will
> "return to normal" (i.e., boat going up 20% in price as they did in the
> late
> '90's when baby boomers felt flush with stock market profits and/or home
> real
> estate profits).
>
> Will the used sailboat market return? Not likely, for fewer and fewer and
>
> fewer people are sailing each year and baby boomers are now edging towards
>
> the creakiness of old age. According to the US Dept of Parks (which
> surveys
> recreational activities), between 1996 and 2000 the number of people who
> stepped foot on a sailboat even once in the previsous year dropped by
> half.
> Don't know the numbers for 2001/2002 but expect many more left as well.
> This
> year the NYC boatshow (which I've attended since 1983) dropped in paid
> attendance by 26% over 2002, and those who did pay admitance didn't stay
> very
> long. The place had a library like quiet.
>
> To date, their are few panic sellers of used sailboats out there, though
> at
> least some can be expected in coming months. How many panic sellers might
>
> their ultimately be? Depands on lots of thing. Dow at 10,000/home
> mortage
> rates at 4.7%/NASDQ at 3,500/new auto sales at 17,000,000 a year? Not
> many.
> Dow at 6,900 or mortages at 7% or NASDQ at 800 or auto sales at
> 10,000,000?
> A lot.
>
> btw, I remember the Dow at 2,000, mortgages at 12%, NASDQ at 500 (I
> think),
> and auto sales dropping from 11,000,000 to 5,500,000 in a little over 1
> years
> time.
>
> Every boom has a bust, every bust has a boom. The only constant is
> change.
> And change brings opportunity.
>
> My guess is that the used sailboat prices won't "return to normal" until
> about 6 years from now. Could be longer, could be shorter, but it won't be
>
> this summer.
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
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