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Subject: Re: [world-cruising] Buyer's Market
JAXAshby@XXX.XXX
Date: Mon Apr 07 2003 - 11:02:11 EDT
In a message dated 4/7/2003 9:18:50 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
JGrafton@XXX.XXX writes:
> I have a price on my boat and will not sell it for a penny less no
> matter how long it takes. I continue to upgrade and maintain at the
> highest
> level. If I don't sell her, no problem we will continue to have fun with
> the one we now own.
In August of 1999 I owned Worldcom stock at $66 a share. Luckily (or
smartly?) I sold it not long after, for by June of 2002 the stock was $0.10 a
share, meaning one needed to sell ten shares to be able to afford a cold can
of Coke on a hot summer's afternoon. I understand Worldcom stock has since
skyrocketed by some 300% in just a few months to $0.30 a share.
Between 1978 and 1981, collector's postage stamps were appreciating sometimes
at over 2,000% (two THOUSAND percent) per year. Then one month the market
stopped. By 1984 collector's stamps were back at mid 70's prices.
The market price for any item is the price a willing buyer will pay to a
willing seller. I know someone who still owns Worldcom bought at $66. I
don't know anyone who expects Worldcom to return to that price, no matter how
long one waits.
Reality of the used sailboat market today is that there are *very* few buyers
out there right now, and most of them have been patiently waiting -- cash in
hand -- for the bargains to start to show up. About the only thing propping
up the used sailboat market right now is that fewer and fewer and fewer boat
owners are offering their boats right now, hoping that the market will
"return to normal" (i.e., boat going up 20% in price as they did in the late
'90's when baby boomers felt flush with stock market profits and/or home real
estate profits).
Will the used sailboat market return? Not likely, for fewer and fewer and
fewer people are sailing each year and baby boomers are now edging towards
the creakiness of old age. According to the US Dept of Parks (which surveys
recreational activities), between 1996 and 2000 the number of people who
stepped foot on a sailboat even once in the previsous year dropped by half.
Don't know the numbers for 2001/2002 but expect many more left as well. This
year the NYC boatshow (which I've attended since 1983) dropped in paid
attendance by 26% over 2002, and those who did pay admitance didn't stay very
long. The place had a library like quiet.
To date, their are few panic sellers of used sailboats out there, though at
least some can be expected in coming months. How many panic sellers might
their ultimately be? Depands on lots of thing. Dow at 10,000/home mortage
rates at 4.7%/NASDQ at 3,500/new auto sales at 17,000,000 a year? Not many.
Dow at 6,900 or mortages at 7% or NASDQ at 800 or auto sales at 10,000,000?
A lot.
btw, I remember the Dow at 2,000, mortgages at 12%, NASDQ at 500 (I think),
and auto sales dropping from 11,000,000 to 5,500,000 in a little over 1 years
time.
Every boom has a bust, every bust has a boom. The only constant is change.
And change brings opportunity.
My guess is that the used sailboat prices won't "return to normal" until
about 6 years from now. Could be longer, could be shorter, but it won't be
this summer.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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