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From: (no name) (no email)
Date: Sat Apr 19 2008 - 10:01:00 EDT
Today's Accuweather web site (www.accuweather.com) has an interesting article
on hurricane probability. The article reports that MIT Professor Kerry
Emanuel, an expert on tropical cyclones, using a new high resolution global weather
modeling technique, has determined that global warming should reduce the
frequency of hurricanes over the next 200 years. . . . . . . Assuming there is no
change in the increasing rate of global greenhouse emissions, Emanuel's new
study finds that the world would likely experience FEWER tropical cyclones, but
they would be more powerful and last longer.
Part of the change has been attributed to the fact that the global warming
trend has shifted both the northern and southern hemisphere jet streams toward
the poles at a rate of about 12 miles a year. The high altitude jets disturb
the thermals that precipitate the development of hurricanes, reducing their
strength. Over time the jet streams will move far enough to allow tropical storms
to develop more fully and increase in intensity. Some experts predict that
Category 4 and 5 hurricanes may become the norm rather than the exception.
Boaters in the hurricane belt better scout out that good hurricane hole now.
(Or move to northern climes.) I've got mine already staked out in case another
Atlantic Clipper comes up the East coast this season.
Larry Z
**************
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