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From: trawlerphil (no email)
Date: Sun Sep 03 2006 - 21:18:57 EDT
Insurance companies use "experience rating" in their rate calculations.
Question is when was the last devastating hurricane to inundate NYC? Next
the actuaries try to estimate when the next one is likely to be and set
rates accordingly.
Had there been one contrarian insurance company who lowered rates in Florida
this year rather than buy into the "17 named storms" forecast, they would
have made a bundle. Clearly there are another 6 weeks to go before we are
home free, but you've got to admit it's looking pretty good. In 6 days
we'll know more about tropical depression #6.
Elevations for federal flood insurance in North Carolina reference the 100
year flood mark for example which seems to suggest an underwriting boundary
referencing possibility vs probability.
I stand on my argument that funding to keep the electricity on in the Bronx
on a normal day would be a good investment addressing an "experienced"
probability, worrying about the tsunami from the UK probably isn't a good
use of time, capital and technology.
I did enjoy the academics going at it last night over what really killed the
dinosaurs and whose theory was hogwash...
Regards....
Phil Rosch
Old Harbor Consulting
M/V "Curmudgeon" MT44 TC
Currently lying Bond Creek, NC
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