Next message: Mark: "Re: T&T: New boat"
Mike Maurice wrote:
>
> An update on the saga of finding a weather window.
> About a week ago the Fleet Numeric Model was showing a calm area
>
The 9 PM forecasts are out for the US West Coast. Keep in mind that the
forecast changes somewhat with almost very single forecast update, which
occurs every 6 hours. A summary of the present fairy tale.
There will be afternoon wind, in the Santa Barbara Channel. By Saturday
morning the laydown near Pt. Conception should be well under way. The
area of calm is centered around Pt. Arguello just up the coast from Pt. C.
It matters LITTLE what is going on up the coast 150 miles near Pt. Sur
on Saturday as the boat will not be there until at least Saturday night,
more likely Sunday. In that regard, the conditions north of Santa Cruz
by Monday will be in the 15 to 25 knot range. Which if this occurs as
predicted, may put a stop to our forward progress, but at least we will
be in The Bay area by then. In which case we will be within striking
distance of running north of San Francisco, if conditions will allow. If
not then at least we are out of Southern California and the hurdles that
entails.
The tricky part is this. The afternoon wind is very likely and the
present forecast is for no more than 20 knots. On the other hand, by
Friday, that afternoon wind may be forecast for 25 or 30. In which case
it will be essential to get down to Pt. C. during the night, after the
wind dies down and start up the coast immediately, if it is still calm
on arrival at The Point.
Notice that the tactics are to use every available minute of calm to
advance the boat to it's destination. To take into account changes in
the forecast and the actual conditions that result. To avoid attempting
to move forward when conditions are deteriorating and to move out as
soon as practical as soon as conditions begin to laydown. This last
sentence is the vital key to my tactics. Otherwise, what happens is that
you keep on going when conditions are deteriorating, and get beaten up.
And you wait while conditions are improving and lose opportunity to
improve your situation by advancement. The former set of tactics are the
easiest to use, because it takes real grit to use the latter set. You
simply have to force yourself to watch the forecasts and the condition
reports like your life depended upon them, or you will end up behind the
curve, by default.
Don't kid yourself. I have as much trouble taking my own advice as
anybody else. It takes real determination and constant attention, to
keep to the plan. Which is likely to change constantly. The sheer effort
to do this will wear you out. Coastal hopping is a battle of finesse,
not brute force.
Regards,
Mike
_____________________________________
Capt. Mike Maurice
Beaverton Oregon(Near Portland)
_______________________________________________
http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/listinfo/trawlers-and-trawlering
To unsubscribe send email to
with the word
UNSUBSCRIBE and nothing else in the subject or body of the message.
Trawlers & Trawlering and T&T are trademarks of Water World
Productions. Unauthorized use is prohibited.
