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Subject: Re: TWL: Weather Information Decision Rules
From: Ross Fleming (rossflem@XXX.XXX)
Date: Tue Feb 05 2002 - 00:39:01 EST
On Sat, 2 Feb 2002 07:24:20 -0800, "Kim Cimmery" <kcimmery@XXX.XXX>
wrote:
[snip]
> My objective is to
>cross-reference web available information to verify that a weather/ocean
>condition window of opportunity will exist starting in the next 24 hours and
>lasting for at least 24.
Consider auditing the Atmospheric Sciences (or Metrology) 101
offered at your local collage. I learned quite a bit from taking this
class from Cliff Mass at the University of Washington. If you live
in Seattle I suggest watching the UW Catalog and auditing this course
if you have a chance.
While the academic content was important it was not what I got
out of the class. The class had lecture 4 days a week and the first
20 minutes of each lecture consisted of a review of current weather
data, satellite photos, model predictions, etc. Doing this several
days a week for a quarter really helped show you what forecasting
could and couldn't do.
If you can't attend a class I would suggest a systematic
observation of weather data, forecasts, etc. over an extended period
of time. You will probably find it helpful. Be sure to read and
learn to understand (lots of jargon and shorthand to learn) the
"Forecast Discussion" for your area. For Washington they are at
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/disc_report.html.
An example:
Western Washington
054
FXUS66 KSEW 050503
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST MON FEB 4 2002
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAINY PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
.DISCUSSION...WHAT A NICE AFTERNOON HERE IN SEATTLE TODAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER STALLING FRONT. IT WAS THE KIND OF AFTERNOON WHERE WHEN
YOUR SON OR DAUGHTER GETS HOME FROM SCHOOL YOU PULL OUT THE BASEBALL
GLOVES AND GO OUTSIDE AND START TO GET THE WINTER RUST OFF THE
THROWING ARM BY PLAYING CATCH FOR THE FIRST TIME OF THE SEASON.
OK...BACK TO THE FORECASTING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRONT OFFSHORE
ONCE AGAIN SHOWING SIGNS OF STALLING. WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR 42N/131W
WILL DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. 04Z SURFACE OBS
INDICATE THE FRONT HAS NOT YET GONE THROUGH BUOY 5. ASOS OBS AT 04Z
ALONG THE COAST STILL HAVE CEILINGS ABOVE 12000 FEET. PARENT LOW WITH
THE FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVING
INLAND NORTH OF THE STATE. NEW 00Z RUNS SLOW THINGS DOWN WITH
PRECIPITATION NOT BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST UNTIL AFTER 12Z WITH THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING INLAND 18Z-21Z. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL BACK OFF TIMING IN THE ZONES.
NOT MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN COLD AIR MOVING INLAND TO THE
NORTH AND WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EATING AWAY
WHAT LITTLE COLD AIR IS LEFT AT OUR LATITUDE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BUT VARY
GREATLY ON THE INTENSITY WITH THE AVN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE MESOETA.
WILL LEAVE FOR THE MID SHIFT TO SORT OUT. FELTON
UIL 1948 SEA 1927 OLM 1927
.SEW...GALE WARNING COAST..ENTRANCES TO STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
.KATX...VCP32/CSR32...OPERATIONAL.
___________________________________________________
Ross Fleming rossflem@XXX.XXX
S/V Renown Gulfstar 39
Seattle, Washington http://renoun.net
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