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The below is the area of intrest from
www.hurricanehollow.org I thought it would be of great
interest to the list and will continue to send updates
unless you guys think I shouldn't. The guy that runs this
is has been more accurate than anyone in the past 3 years.
Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to a tropical storm due
to the fact the center reformed more north and east during
the day. Recon had found that the center had reformed
closer to Hispanola. The mountains of Hispanola have
limited the inflow, the winds being pulled into the center
of low pressure. A low pressure is basically that. Where
the surface air pressure is lower being it is being pulled
upward. All the air is being pulled inward, refered to as
inflow.<br>
Being the inflow was limited by the mountinous terrain of
Hispanola, this allowed the winds to drop. Less inflow,
causes the pressure to rise, being less air is being
lifted upward in the center of circulation.<br>
Now, this is going to be a short lived event. As the storm
pulls slowly away from Hispanola, we should see the inflow
begin to increase and the surface presures to drop for the
short term as the center of the storm moves into the
Southern Windward Passage. This will create a brief
opportunity for the cyclone to regain some wind speed.
What will be the indication of this? Lowering barometric
pressures, and an expansion of the deep convection.<br>
As the storm approaches the Southeast Coast of Cuba,
Ernesto could regain hurricane status due to this brief
period of regeneration.<br>
As the storm crosses Cuba. We're not exactlly sure where
or how long this will take. But, it's the forecast track,
which is becoming better defined with each advisory. As
Ernesto tracks across Cuba by Tuesday morning, we should
still have a fairly organized tropical low pressure. The
shear will be low, the waters warm, so regeneration is
probable as the storm moves off the north coast of Cuba
early Tuesday morning.<br>
Now, as the storm moves into the Nicholas Channel and
across the Florida Straits Ernesto should regain hurricane
status by Tuesday afternoon. This is going to be a very
tricky track forecast. If the storm tracks a little east,
Ernesto could move into Southern Florida on a northwest or
north-northwest track. This would move the center directly
northward into the southern portion of the state and up
through the central portions of the state. Technically,
this would be good, but not for South Floridians still
reeling from the last two seasons. Now is the time to GET
READY!<br>
If the track is further west, and brings Ernesto into the
open Southeastern Gulf of Mexico, this will allow for the
storm to intensify further as it moves northwest and
north-northwest off the west coast of the state. We would
then see tropical storm force winds, and even possibly
hurricane force gusts raking the entire West Coast of
Florida till landfall occurs somewhere near Tampa. Based
on the current forecast track, this landfall point is just
south of Tampa. Not good news for these residents
there.<br>
If the track is just a little further east then the
current forecast track, the landfall will be just north of
Tampa, where the storm surge would be the greatest. This
would also allow Ernesto just a little longer over water
to intensify a little more. We could see hurricane force
winds throughout the state, except on the East Coast of
Florida where tropical storm force winds would be
felt.<br>
I will be hosting Hurricane Hollow's Eye on the Storm
Tuesday evening beginning at 8PM/ET!
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